This Week (next 3–7 days)
Where we are: ~$121k, with sentiment back in Greed (≈60–70). Trend is up on the big charts, but we’re pressing into a ceiling.
Key levels
- Resistance: $122–123k (needs a strong daily close to break), then $125–128k, and $130k psych.
- Support: $119–118k (first bounce zone), $117k (3-hour 200MA), $116–115k (breakout origin), and $112k (range floor).
Most likely path:
Choppy range under $122–123k. Brief dips toward $117–115k are normal and don’t harm the uptrend.
Breakout path:
Daily close > $122k on good volume → momentum can carry to $125–128k, then cool off.
Fade path:
If we reject $122k twice and lose the 3-hour 200MA, expect a quick test of $116–115k (still healthy).
Tactical tips
- Don’t chase; buy pullbacks toward $117k if you trade short-term.
- For momentum entries, wait for a daily close > $122k.
- Set alerts: $122k (breakout), $117k (dip), $112k (range break).
The Long Game (months → cycle)
The rails that matter
- 200-day MA ~ $100k: Bull trend intact while we’re above it; first “trend stress” if we close below.
- 200-week MA ~ $51–52k: Bitcoin’s historical “fair-value highway.” Major cycle bottoms cluster near this line.
Cycle rhythm (what history says)
- Fresh ATH (we got one in July) → months of chop → a final push (late 2025/early 2026?) → then a 10–14-month bust that mean-reverts toward the 200-week MA.
- Translation: the blow-off top is more likely late ’25 → early ’26; the deep bear low more likely late ’26 → mid ’27.
Long-term buying plan (set it and forget it)
- Keep saving cash while we’re near highs.
- Use a ladder on real fear:
- First nibbles: $95k / $92.5k / $90k (~25% of your budget)
- Heavier buys: $85k / $75k / $70k / $65k / $55k (~50%)
- Final shots: $50k / $45k (~25%)
- Move fills to cold storage; think in years, not weeks.
What would change the long-term view?
- Multiple weekly closes below the 200-day MA (would raise risk of a larger down-leg).
- Funding/leverage blow-off + sentiment in Extreme Greed for weeks (risk of a nearer-term top).
- Or, on the bullish side, persistent spot-ETF inflows and a clean weekly close well above $123k with follow-through.
Bottom Line
- This week: expect rangey chop under $122–123k with buyable dips to $117–115k; breakout only confirmed on a daily close > $122k.
- Long term: bull structure intact, but the best long-term entries still come during fear. Keep the dip-ladder live and let price come to you.